Computer simulation leans to Seattle

SportSims.netsimulated the Super Bowl 40,000 times, and the Seahawks came out the winner. That's good news for Seattle fans, because the SportSims.netwinner is 14-4 in the real game.

"This will be an 'edge-of-your-seat' Super Bowl," said Dave Holt of "We may see the first Super Bowl overtime. The results of the simulation show amazingly close scores."

The average points scored: Seattle 25.2, Pittsburgh 24.6.

Holt, along with colleagues Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson, entered the players' season statistics into their simulation engine rather than using subjective player ratings to get the results.

In 40,000 simulations, Seattle won 53 percent of the time. When the Seahawks won, they outscored the Steelers 27-24. In the 47 percent of the games where the Steelers won, they outscored Seattle 24-21.

"Last year the Seahawks failed to give [Shaun] Alexander the ball and he lost the rushing title. If they fail to give him the ball against the Steelers, the Seahawks will lose the Super Bowl title," Holt said.

The representative game demonstrated how closely matched these teams are. Neither team ever had a lead greater than seven points.

At halftime the score is 17-10 Seattle. In the second half, the lead continued to seesaw. The game turned on a late Pittsburgh interception and Seattle won on a 27-yard Josh Brown field goal with three seconds remaining.

Alexander, on the strength of 29 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns, was named the MVP.