Dean Witter Broker Lynn Lindsay Wins Guess The Dow Contest -- Sees Modest Growth For 1997 With Finish At 7,200

Lynn Lindsay is getting a tad conservative.

The Dean Witter Reynolds stockbroker who was the closest to guessing the closing 1996 Dow Jones industrial average in a Seattle contest turned in a 1997 market-increase forecast nearly a third lower than her winning 1996 pick.

For 1996, Lindsay predicted Dow 6,000, 17 percent beyond 1995's close. That proved to be the best among 14 Seattle-area investment pros who participated in the annual Metropolitan Grill Guess the Dow contest.

Lindsay's pick for 1997? A modest 7,200, only 12 percent better than the 1996 close of 6,448.27.

"1997 should again see better-than-expected earnings growth, modest inflation, a modest hike in interest rates, favorable developments in Washington (D.C.) and a possible gains tax cut," Lindsay said.

She and others were to be feted today at a luncheon at the Met in downtown Seattle.

The contest, held since 1985, features guesses both from professionals and amateurs. The non-pro winner for 1996 was John Schroeder, a Seattle Times retiree. Last February, he entered a Dow forecast of 6,452.11, less than four points off the mark 10 1/2 months later.

In another phase of the contest, brokers select three Northwest stocks. The 1996 winner, George Steiner of Prudential Securities, earned his second title. His three - PathoGenesis, Microsoft and Eagle Hardware - gained an average of 121 percent.

Steiner is almost as bullish as Lindsay for 1997, picking a Dow finish of 7,130.

"The only thing that will derail this market is war or interest rates going substantially higher," Steiner said. "There's just too much money from baby boomers."

As a group, the brokers are a little nervous about '97. The average Dow pick was only 6 percent beyond 1996's close. The high pick was Dain Bosworth's Gordon Lawrence, at 7,652. Lawrence's Dow choice in 1995, substantially in excess of his contemporaries, made him the champion.

As usual, Paul Maffeo of MA Associates chimed in with the low Dow forecast, at 5,500, reflecting an expectation of a 15 percent drop.

Considering all phases, including national-stock selections and divining one stock that won't do well, the overall titlist was Joel Ferrell of Smith Barney.

Here are the pickers, their company, their 1996 Dow forecast, their 1997 Dow forecast and three Northwest stocks they favor:

Jeff Atkin, Kunath Karren Rinne & Atkin, 5,499, 7,038, Flow International, Labor Ready, InControl.

Eric Brewe, Piper Jaffray, 5,555, 6,925, Starbucks, Eagle Hardware, Microsoft.

Wayne DeMeester, Everen Securities, 5,800, 7,050, Labor Ready, Immunex, Microsoft.

Joel Ferrell, Smith Barney, 5,437, 6,896.4, Sun Sportswear, Icos, Starbucks.

Mary Ann Heeren, Dain Bosworth, 4,978, 7,200, Flow Int., Boeing, Oregon Steel.

Matt Kelleher, Paine Webber, 4,850, 6,350, Nextel, Pyramid Breweries, Weyerhaeuser.

Gordon Lawrence, Dain Bosworth, 5,865, 7,652, Boeing, Nike, PriceCostco.

Lynn Lindsay, Dean Witter, 6,000, 7,200, Microsoft, Boeing, PriceCostco.

Paul Maffeo, MA Associates, 4,500, 5,500, Airborne Freight, Royal Oak Mines, Coeur d'Alene Mines.

Tricia Reebs, Seafirst Investments, new entrant, 7,000, Fred Meyer, Oregon Metallurgical, PriceCostco.

Scott Smallman, Piper Jaffray, 5,175, 5,800, Itron, Wholesome & Hearty, Flow International.

George Steiner, Prudential Securities, 5,714, 7,139, Tera Computer, Pathogenesis, Icos.

Adam Walters, U.S. Bancorp Securities, 4,800, 7,100, Western Wireless, Microsoft, Nike.