Blowing The Lid Off The M's Plans For A Retractable Roof

MEMO to the Seattle Mariners: Take your retractable roof and retract it. Permanently.

You don't need it, fellas. Honest, you don't.

This weekend, Seattle could be watching the two greatest juniors of all time, Griffey and Ripken, play in perfect baseball weather. On grass. With Mount Rainier looming beyond the scoreboard.

We could be bathing in 75-degree sun, imbibing enough cold pop and beer to pay for another legitimate starting pitcher. We could have a baseball park that makes Camden Yards or Comiskey Park look like Sicks Stadium.

Our new ballpark doesn't have to cost $250 million. Baltimore got its first-class stadium for $131 million, which means we are being asked to cough up $100 million for a plastic carport that might be used three or four days a year.

Because (now listen closely) Rain City gets less rain during the season than Baltimore. Less than Cleveland or Chicago or Detroit or New York. Less than anyone except Dallas and California.

I have this on excellent authority. Gregory Buck, a 43-year-old baseball fan from Queen Anne, has been living at the library, studying years of weather records for Seattle and other major-league cities. He memorized whole seasons of the late Seattle Pilots and Tacoma Tigers - not who won or lost, but whether they got rained on.

He does this instead of going to Mariners' games. "I hate the Kingdome," he says. "Baseball was meant to be played outdoors. And there is absolutely no reason for Seattle to build another domed stadium."

His findings are summarized in the accompanying chart. Over 30 years, Seattle's annual rainfall averaged 38.85 inches. That's more than some major-league cities, but considerably less than others such as Atlanta (48 inches,) New York (44 inches,) or Boston (43 inches.)

But here's the rest of the story: While other major-league cities get their rain during baseball season, Seattle's rain comes in the winter - football season. From April through September, when baseballs fly, Seattle averages 9.95 inches and 52 days with at least a trace of precipitation.

That compares with 22.52 inches and 57 days during the season in Baltimore, 19.78 inches and 68 days in Cleveland, and 22.20 inches and 60 days in New York City.

Our 52 "rain days" do not mean 52 rainouts. Road trips and off days cut the risk to 23 days. Of those 23, about 12 would be dry by game time. Based on three years of observation, Buck figures at least half of those would be delayed less than an hour.

Buck's conclusion: In an outdoor stadium, Seattle would get fewer than six rainouts a season - mostly in April and May.

Moving from theory to experience, Tacoma's Pacific Coast League team plays in an open-air stadium subject to the same weather as Seattle. They average four rainouts per year, and many of those postponements are caused by a poorly drained field.

The short-lived Seattle Pilots had five rain-outs and six rain delays in their single season. But 1969 was an unusually wet summer - 13.53" compared to the 9.95" average. Had the Pilots survived, they would have played in the sun.

Had the Mariners played outdoors in 1994, three games would have been delayed, all of them in April and May. And no rainouts.

Over a span of 30 years, that $100 million roof amortizes out to about $1 million per rainout.

So, Mariners guys, perhaps state legislators knew what they were doing when they declined to buy you a retractable dome. Even Republicans know enough not to get out of the rain when it ain't raining.

Enjoy your baseball this weekend. Savor the experience of watching baseball's best centerfielder and best shortstop. Close your eyes for a moment, and imagine you're watching it under a blue sky.

Then get back to those drawing boards. Cut your price tag and draw us a classic, intimate, outdoor stadium. Stick it on the ballot as an alternative to the high-tech number.

And let us fans decide where we want to sit.

Rainy days at ballpark

This chart gives the 30-year average of rainy days in selected major league cities. The figures are from April to September.

Avg Avg 1994.

rain rain rainout. City (inch) (days) or delay.

Los Angeles 1.82 8 0. Oakland 2.49 12 0. Seattle 9.95 52 3. Dallas 17.56 40 7. Detroit 17.88 62 6. Milwaukee 19.13 62 3. Cleveland 19.78 68 8. Boston 19.94 60 8. Kansas City 20.21 55 8. Chicago 21.40 63 1. New York 22.20 60 5. Baltimore 22.52 57 9.

(Source: Weather of U.S. Cities, 1985 edition; and 1994 observations of Gregory Buck of Seattle.) -----------------------------------------------------------------

Ross Anderson's column appears Friday on editorial pages of The Times.