Stockbrokers `Guess' Dow Will Soar
If a band of optimistic stockbrokers is to be believed, the second half of 1991 will feature as good or better a stock market as the first half.
The 14 brokers, decidedly pessimistic when the first half of 1991 began, have turned positive. And if investors believe that, they might want to tackle the brokers' favorite stocks: Esterline Technologies, Microsoft and Immunex.
The brokers were part of the semiannual Guess the Dow contest promoted by Consolidated Restaurants. The 14 brokers were to gather today at the Metropolitan Grill to crown the first-half champions.
Ron McCollum of PaineWebber nearly hit the Dow on the nose from six months out. His choice of 2,903 for the widely watched index of 30 blue-chip stocks fell fewer than four points shy of the June 28 closing figure of 2,906.75.
Wayne DeMeester of Prudential Securities selected three stocks - Microsoft, Washington Mutual Savings Bank and Westmark International - that outperformed his 13 competitors.
For the year's first half, six of the 14 guessers predicted the Dow would not gain ground. In fact, it added 273 points. Eleven of the 14 guessers underestimated the market's growth during the first six months.
It would appear they decided not to make that mistake again. Ten of 14 pickers predicted the Dow would gain in the next six months, and seven said the Dow would hit at least 3,100. The Dow's best close ever was 3,035.33.
The most bullish is the latest winner. McCollum set a target of 3,195, pinning his hopes on a continued economic recovery.
PaineWebber's Paul Maffeo, who often is the most bearish guesser, was outdone this time. His Dec. 31 forecast of 2,800 was exceeded by Terry Crowe of Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards. Seeing a market consolidation on the horizon, Crowe targeted the Dow at 2,794 - about a 4 percent drop.
As for individual stock picks over 1991's final six months, Esterline, Microsoft and Immunex were the only names to appear three times each. Only three other stocks - Boeing, Egghead and Summit Savings - landed on two ballots apiece.
Here are the forecasters' stock picks and end-of-1991 Dow guesses, ranked by their standings in the midyear picks.
1. Ron McCollum, PaineWebber, 2,903 for first half; Boeing, Fred Meyer, Paccar; 3,195 end of year.
2. Mary Ann Heeren, Dain Bosworth, 2,985; Morrison Knudsen, Mentor Graphics, Esterline; 2,878.
3. Newell Bossart, Kidder, Peabody, 2,833.33; McCaw Cellular, FPS Computing, Lattice Semiconductor; 3,006.
4. Howard Robbins, Dain Bosworth; 3,065.21; Esterline, Washington Mutual, Weyerhaeuser; 3,065.1.
5. Wayne DeMeester, Prudential Securities; 3,070; Summit Savings, Data I/O, Immunex; 3,100.
6. Gordon Lawrence, Prudential Securities, 2,685; Summit Savings, Immunex, Nordstrom; 3,165.
7. Terry Crowe, Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards, 2,678; Puget Sound Bancorp, Microsoft, Washington Federal Savings (Oregon); 2,794.
8. Joel Ferrell, Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards, 3,150; Alaska Air, Microsoft, ProCyte; 3,150.
9. Jeff Atkin, Kunath Karren Rinne & Atkin, 2,593; Egghead, Esterline, Boise Cascade; 2,843.
10. Lynn Lindsay, Dean Witter, 2,575; Microsoft, QFC, Costco; 3,175.
11. Tom Backus, Harper, McLean, 2,550; Riedel Environmental Technologies, Sprouse-Rietz Stores, Lattice Semiconductor; 3,105.
12. George Steiner, Shearson Lehman Brothers, 2,541; Alaska Air, Boeing, US West; 2,945.5.
13. Jerry Greenway, Dean Witter, 2,520; Louisiana Pacific, Scott Paper, Immunex; 3,176.
14. Paul Maffeo, PaineWebber, 2,300; Ackerley, HQ Office, Pacific Nuclear Systems; 2,800.