Q & A: The future of the monorail
Supporters and opponents are gearing up for yet another vote on the monorail in November.
The ballot measure — the fifth on the public transportation project — will ask voters to approve a newly condensed 10-mile route from West Seattle to Interbay.
Times reporter Mike Lindblom took your questions on the monorail ballot initiative and other issues surrounding the project from noon to 1 p.m. today.
Thanks to everyone who participated.
Everything I've seen about new transit in other cities points to huge economic benefits. Why isn't there more coverage of how the monorail will benefit neighborhood businesses as well as people who ride it?
— Michelle, Seattle
Certainly, Vancouver SkyTrain has promoted redevelopment around the stations. John Haley, SMP's recently hired Interim Executive Director, predicts that a monorail would bring about similar neighborhood improvements in Seattle. In the Times 2002 coverage of the monorail initiative, we described some of the possibilities around stations.
SMP previously published a paper predicting rising values here. In a few cases, such as a large condo development in Ballard, businesses have touted the monorail as a benefit.
But downtown landowners have objected to overhead tracks near their buildings, so it's unclear whether they accept the rising-values argument. (Vancouver's line follows an old freight-rail tunnel through downtown.)
As a reporter, I haven't focusing much on the land-value question.
Has anyone lost their residence or business, or been forced to relocate due to eminent domain (the taking of private property for public use) by the SMP. If so, is there any recourse for those businesses and homeowners if the project ultimately falls apart?
— Mark Hulen, Everett
Several businesses have been forced out, but far fewer than Sound Transit has displaced in Rainier Valley for the light rail project. SMP's board is still focused on getting the monorail built. So there's been no policy decision about whether existing owners would get preference if the land is eventually resold, or whether lands would be resold to the high bidder.
I was under the impression that the Green Line was part one of a five-part system. Does the SMP have any ideas how they will be able to pay for the remaining lines, or will we just not get the remaining lines since this one is so expensive?
— H Ferber, Seattle
Right now, SMP has put forth no proposals to pay for additional lines.
Those lines were shown on promotional maps in 2002, but they are not required in the ballot measure voters passed that year.
The agency has spent more than $1 million since 2002 on second-line studies, mainly an extension to Lake City or an east-west route from Ballard to the University of Washington.
Recent efforts have been focused on trying to pay off the first 10 miles in less than 40 years. More lines will almost certainly require a tax increase, competing with light-rail and highways. The state authorizing legislation for Seattle's monorail allows SMP to ask voters for higher car-tab taxes, property taxes, a rental-car tax and flat car-tab fees that could fund more lines.
Didn't Dick Falkenbury say that he didn't support the shortening of the line and if it couldn't be built under the SMP's projected costs that it needed to be shut down?
— Jen Seltzer, Seattle
Basically, yes. But he has not given up on building a monorail.
Falkenbury, the tour-bus driver who launched the monorail movement in the mid-1990s, considers the current $1.64 billion contract far too costly and thinks all 14 miles could be built with a simpler "Tinkertoy" design. For instance, he proposes saving money by making all the columns and stations the same shape.
Due to the recent primary election results with Stockmeyer losing to Nobles and Laws losing to Goldberg, do you think this is a trend among the voters to shut this project down?
— Josh Sharp, Seattle
The victory of Beth Goldberg, a monorail opponent, might indicate that. But in the other primary race, pro-monorail candidates Cleve Stockmeyer and Dick Falkenbury combined won more votes than did Jim Nobles. So he is certainly not guaranteed victory in the general election.
Will the fare structure be seamless with all the other transit systems, or will they charge a separate fare to ride the Green Line?
— Roger Pence, Seattle
The Seattle Monorail Project hasn't decided what a ride will cost.
Old studies from 2002 assumed there would be a surcharge to transfer from a bus to the trains, but a May 2005 ridership study assumes that riders will only have to pay one fare.
Still, monorail leaders have set a goal of "breaking even" on operating costs, so there's some pressure to charge more.
SMP's proposed contract would allow the monorail to join a future regional "smart card" network so the same pass could be used on Sound Transit light-rail, bus, or monorail.
I paid $340 in tax on my car tabs. Will I get that money back if the monorail is not built and will there be any legal recourse to get that money back?
— S. Morgan, Seattle
No. The Seattle Monorail Project has already spent about $110 million more than it has taken in. If the agency folds, about $62 million in real estate would be sold off to pay debts. But the tax would probably still continue for two years before the debts are paid. There won't be any money to be refunded.
Some vehicle owners and project opponents, led by Seattle lawyer Henry Aronson, have a lawsuit pending before the state Supreme Court seeking to have the monorail tax declared unconstitutional.
Even if they win, I don't see any path to a refund.
Why isn't the monorail extending to the airport? It seems a more efficient use of tax dollars would be to run the monorail from downtown to SeaTac similar to a line in St. Louis.
— Liz, Seattle
The monorail ballot measures were for the city of Seattle only, and Seattle residents are the ones paying the monorail tax. So there's no money or political approval to go south beyond the city limits.
Sound Transit is planning to eventually reach the airport with its Seattle-Tukwila light rail line.
Back in the early 1960s, then-Gov. Albert Rosellini wanted to extend the Seattle Center Monorail to the airport, but that didn't happen, in part because the region focused a few years later on building Interstate 5.
I've heard people (& local leaders) talking about other mass transit to serve the West Seattle corridor besides monorail. Given the geography and land space over there, wouldn't you agree monorail is the best option?
— Daren, Seattle
In 2001, a city study looked at improved bus service as one possibility, particularly for West Seattle. More recently, a few officials have talked about adding a bus lane between the West Seattle Bridge and the regional busway in Sodo. Light rail would be difficult to build. Like monorail, it would require a separate Ballard bridge. There are no solid cost estimates for any of these ideas.
How has current research on the Seattle fault impacted the project?
— P Reed, Kenmore
Seattle Monorail Project spent $3.3 million on geotechnical studies and test drilling to map the soils along the route. In some locations in Sodo, south of downtown, bedrock was 200 feet or deeper. Contractors estimate that it would cost $105 million just to build the below-ground column foundations to the proper strength.
A related issue is whether to dual-track the West Seattle Bridge portion of the line, now proposed for single-tracking across the road deck. Dual-tracking would be somewhat heavier and cost more to ensure the columns will stay securely fastened to the deck.
It would seem to make more sense to go back to the water-based system Seattle used to have. There could be passenger ferries from West Seattle to Ballard, Magnolia, and downtown. The Viaduct reconstruction could include more docks spread out on the waterfront. It seems like the waterways are being looked at as a bottleneck, not an opportunity.
— P Reed, Seattle
If the monorail is built, do you think it is inevitable that it will be expanded? Would an existing system be eligible for federal dollars and other sources of tax money?
— Blake, Seattle
Any expansion would almost certainly require a tax increase, because any bonds to finance a 10- to 14-mile Green Line would take three decades or more to pay off.
If the monorail proved a huge success, the public demand for extensions would materialize long before the first line is paid off. At that point, voters and politicians will face competing tax decisions for highways and Sound Transit light-rail.
For the next several years, big Federal Transit Administration grants like the $500 million Sound Transit got to build light-rail, will be harder to obtain, because of increasing transit-agency requests, the preference of Republican-controlled Congress for highway rather than mass transit projects and competing demands for money. SMP Executive Director John Haley has said the agency could seek out smaller grants for the Green Line.
Rail-transit networks in Salt Lake, Denver, Portland, and Vancouver have all been expanded, but they are less costly than the Seattle monorail and light-rail projects.
Why a monorail AND light rail? Why not concentrate on one mass transit instead of 2 in addition to Metro buses?
— Joyce, Seattle
Seattle voters passed a car-tab tax increase for the SMP and its Green Line route in 2002, after approving two previous initiatives to design a citywide monorail network. The popularity of the existing 1962 monorail at Seattle Center, and the desire to rise above congested roads, were part of a grass-roots pro-monorail movement.
Backers focused on a route through Ballard, Seattle Center, downtown and West Seattle, to avoid Sound Transit's corridor through the east side of town. Backers have also said that overhead or tunneled light-rail tracks would be larger, costlier, and more difficult to fit than a monorail into West Seattle than other areas.
Many opponents have said taxpayer dollars are limited, and should be focused on light rail or highways.
Are there any real solutions for Seattle to get around during the 5-7 years when commuting to downtown will take up to 60 minutes while they rebuild the Viaduct (or make an underwater tunnel with ten times the taxes the monorail will cost)? And will there be things like bus service (which means fewer lanes for cars or half as much on-street parking) or streetcars (which go slower than traffic)?
— Will Affleck-Asch, Seattle
So far, the city and state have not developed firm alternatives to a monorail. Mayor Greg Nickels recently ordered his transportation staff to start the planning.
One idea, floated by the state Transportation Performance Audit Board, calls for a new bus lane between the West Seattle Bridge and the busway in Sodo, as part of rebuilding the Spokane Street Viaduct. Someday, light rail is supposed to use all the downtown tunnel, forcing buses someplace else.
Others have mentioned short monorails, streetcar, or light-rail lines that go from Ballard or West Seattle to the fringe of downtown. I think that the question "if not a monorail, what?" is the toughest question facing the monorail opponents.
Very few people have mentioned that the single-track sections of the monorail limit the minimum headway of trains, making it virtually inexpandable. I also haven't seen anyone discuss the lies the monorail agency has put out - actual measurements show that light rail is quieter than currently operating monorail systems, but they still get away with claiming their system is quiet. How much would it cost per mile if the whole monorail were double-tracked (like any reasonable mid to high capacity transit system)? What would the cost of light rail be for the same alignment? The claims that light rail can't climb the grade necessary are false - the Yellow Line in Portland climbs the necessary grade already. Why haven't we discussed simply creating spurs from the line under construction and sharing the tunnel, much like Portland's MAX does downtown?
— Ben Schiendelman, Seattle
SMP board member Cleve Stockmeyer and pro-monorail campaign leader Peter Sherwin both advocate dual tracking. A three-man expert review team from Vancouver, Portland, and Monorail Malaysia told SMP double-tracking will be needed eventually. There are no solid cost estimates yet, though Stockmeyer has mentioned it could be $25 million to $35 million.
I don't know that much about noise in other transit systems, but when I visited Vancouver SkyTrain in 2002, the steel wheels on some trains caused a whine that could be heard half a mile away, and SkyTrain operators were looking for ways to solve the problem.
If car tab taxes prove to bring in less money then expected, what will happen?
— Shana Doore, Seattle
Some members of the monorail's governing board have said that if a big revenue shortage happens years from now, they would refinance the bonds so that the tax would run longer. The public would still benefit from riding a monorail before the bonds are paid off, Chair Kristina Hill has argued.
State Treasurer Mike Murphy has pushed the opposing viewpoint -- that it's poor public policy for a government to sell bonds that take longer than the standard 25-to-30 years to pay off.
This is why SMP and its skeptics argue over what the real growth rate in tax revenues will be. SMP's economic forecaster estimated that tax revenues will grow around 6.1 percent because of the increase of population and value of cars.A few skeptical economists predict the rate is closer to 4-5 percent. This seemingly arcane point affects many other decisions about the project.
Why was there little or no transparency within the monorail bidding process, as well as the totaling of the costs in its entirety?
— Ryan Fansler, Seattle
We now know the contract cost of $1.62 billion is about $300 million or more higher than the agency's hoped-for price, even after dropping some stations and trains.
Yet agency leaders said last September, before the talks, that the bid was affordable. At the time, an anti-monorail initiative was approaching the ballot.
In recent months, some board members have admitted publicly they did not get detailed cost figures from then-Executive Director Joel Horn, while the contract talks were ongoing. Since then, the board members have hired Interim Executive Director John Haley, a former Boston transit chief, and they say the new team is about to present an improved plan.
(Back in June 2003, the monorail board approved an engineering contract that was supposed to provide the agency with its own cost estimates, to prevent surprises. That work wasn't completed and there was no "engineer's estimate" issued. Tom Horkan, director of design and construction, has told me in interviews the estimating task itself would have cost $1 million to $2 million, and it would have been difficult to reach an accurate figure.)