No Eyman-backed initiative makes the cut for fall ballot

OLYMPIA — It was strangely quiet as the deadline to qualify initiatives for the November ballot arrived yesterday. No bold pronouncements. No pack of reporters and no dramatic arrival of stacks of petitions. The reason: No Tim Eyman.

For the first time since 1998 there will not be an Eyman-sponsored initiative on the November ballot. He and his political action committee failed to get enough signatures for either of two initiatives he sponsored.

Eyman didn't return phone calls yesterday. He sent out an e-mail saying his group, Voters Want More Choices, failed to get the 197,734 valid signatures needed in time for yesterday's deadline. Initiative 807 would have tightened state spending limits and required a two-thirds vote of the Legislature or voter approval to raise taxes.

Earlier he had dropped efforts to put a measure on a ballot that would kill Sound Transit's light-rail project.

Eyman first surfaced on the political scene in 1998 with I-200, a measure that cut back government affirmative-action programs. He gave up that campaign to more experienced hands. But in the following years he's qualified five measures for the ballot, four of which were passed by voters.

Critics didn't waste time declaring Eyman's organization in trouble and saying he had lost credibility with voters.

"He's become a paper tiger," said Christian Sinderman, a political consultant who has worked against Eyman initiatives. "He really doesn't have the support he used to."

Not so, said Mike Fagan, a co-director of Voters Want More Choices. "I would say they need to take another look. The phenomenon isn't dead, it's just going to go gain more and more momentum."

Bessie Danilchik of Seattle, a supporter who contributed to Eyman's campaign this year, agrees. "This renews the effort," said Danilchik.

Most experts say Eyman's past successes mean it's too soon to say if this failure marks his downfall. He could bounce back next year.

Then again, maybe state investigations into his finances have tarnished his image. And, perhaps, the constant budget cutting by state and local government in recent years has let the steam out of the anti-tax movement.

Even though it was his most obvious failure in five years, Eyman declared victory in a statement he released yesterday. He contends the threat of his initiative helped keep the Legislature from raising taxes. And the lack of a tax increase sucked away support for I-807. "The more effective we were preventing tax increases, the less popular our own initiative became," Eyman said in his statement.

Still, the failure to turn in signatures yesterday caps a rough year for Eyman.

Last August he paid a $50,000 fine to the state to settle claims that he had diverted campaign donations for personal use. And in an unprecedented step, he was permanently banned from having control over any political-action committee's financial accounts.

This January he failed to qualify an initiative to the Legislature, I-267, which would have taken more than $700 million annually out of the state general fund and put it into road construction and maintenance. That marked the first time Eyman's group has fallen short of getting the signatures needed to qualify a measure after promoting it and raising contributions.

And in May, the state Public Disclosure Commission (PDC) said it was investigating a complaint about a letter Eyman sent to backers soliciting donations for his legal-defense fund. The letter asked for checks of up to $1,000 and promised donors anonymity. The PDC said it's trying to verify that the money he asked for is being used for legal defenses. The probe is ongoing.

The campaign for I-807 started last November when Eyman filed it as an initiative to the Legislature to get an early start on publicity.

Eyman and his co-directors had said previously they would not take a salary unless I-807 qualified for the ballot. However, Mike Fagan said yesterday he wants to start getting paid later this year. "The fact is, with as much time as we're giving up on this, I don't think reasonable people can continue to expect us to do it for free," said Fagan, who said he was only speaking for himself.

Except for a few tweaks, I-807 was intended to re-establish Initiative 601. That measure, passed by voters in 1993, also required a two-thirds vote to raise taxes, among other things. It was designed as a way to build large budget reserves, make it hard to raise taxes and slow the growth of state government.

Since I-601 went into effect in 1995, the Legislature has found ways to get around many of its provisions and made several amendments to allow for more spending. Last year, for example, the Democratic-controlled Legislature reduced the two-thirds-vote requirement to a simple majority for 2002 and 2003. That temporary suspension expired at the end of last month.

At the start of the campaign, Eyman claimed I-807 was an enormously popular idea.

Sherry Bockwinkel, who runs a paid signature-gathering business, Washington Initiatives Now, thought so, too.

Bockwinkel said she gathered signatures for a measure similar to I-807 briefly last year for a client other than Eyman. "We collected 32,000 signatures in one week," she said. "As a professional petition firm, I have never collected that many signatures in one week. I said this is an easy one."

That campaign ran out of money early, she said.

Eyman also didn't have the money to pour into paid signature gathering. His fund raising is off. PDC records show Eyman has raised about $219,000 in cash and in-kind contributions so far this year for I-807, compared with about $331,000 at roughly this date last year.

He had to rely mostly on volunteers. "Relying on volunteers to get the job done is a long shot anymore in the petitioning world," Bockwinkel said. "It's very, very unusual to do it with all volunteers."

That's how Eyman did it in 1999 with I-695. He used an all-volunteer force and his initiative was passed despite being heavily outspent by opponents in the fall campaign.

The anti-tax sentiment might not be what it was then.

Seattle pollster Stuart Elway said people are becoming more aware of cuts in service because of the recession. "I don't think it (the anti-tax movement) has the power it once had," he said.

Bryan Jones, a political-science professor at the University of Washington, said Eyman could be a victim of his own success. "I don't think you can deny that there has been success in this movement," he said.

"There are two takes you can bring to this. People are sick of it and they've had enough. And the other is that he's won."

Danilchik, for her part, thinks the anti-tax movement is far from over and wants Eyman to keep on going. "If the government were a real business it would have gone bankrupt," she said. "But they have the option of every time they overspend ... they just tax us up again. That has to stop."

Lance LeLoup, a political-science professor at Washington State University, said Eyman has shown he has political endurance.

"I'm just leery to say it's over. He could become Freddy Kruger and just keep coming back for 20 years."

Andrew Garber: 360-943-9882 or agarber@seattletimes.com