Race just beginning as decisive primary pits Locke, Carlson

John Carlson, long a leading voice of conservatism in the state, won easily in yesterday's Republican gubernatorial primary.

Carlson had been a heavy favorite over state Sen. Harold Hochstatter of Moses Lake.

"Tonight the real fun starts," Carlson told a crowd of about 300 at Bellevue's Wintergarden last night. "We're going to give voters a choice between a timid incumbent who wants to be something and a challenger who actually wants to do something."

Now the real test begins for the former radio talk-show host and newspaper columnist from Bellevue. Standing in his way is Gov. Gary Locke, a Democrat who is one of the state's most popular and best-financed politicians.

Many Republicans believe Carlson, 41, has a shot at becoming the first Republican in 20 years to win the governor's race.

"It's not an impossible task," said John Spellman, the last Republican governor. "But Mr. Carlson will have to catch fire."

Although Carlson has never held public office, State Rep. Luke Esser, R-Bellevue, one of Carlson's former college classmates, said, "He has one clear advantage, with his background as a broadcaster and as someone who talked about political issues three hours a day, year after year."

Political observers are predicting a costly, contentious race.

"I think this one is going to be closer than a lot of people surmise," said University of Washington political-science professor David Olson.

Republicans haven't won the governor's race since 1980. After a fairly close election in 1992, the GOP was demoralized in 1996, when Locke trounced then-state Sen. Ellen Craswell by more than 16 percentage points.

For a few days last spring, it looked like the GOP, which endured an eight-candidate gubernatorial primary in 1996, was in for another hard-fought primary race.

When Carlson announced his candidacy in March, Hochstatter and former legislator Dale Foreman, then the party's statewide chairman, were already in the race. But less than a week later, Foreman bowed out.

As it turned out, there was a low-key, cordial primary contest between Carlson and little-known Hochstatter.

What's more, squaring off against Hochstatter, a Craswell-like conservative, helped Carlson appear more middle-of-the-road.

Democrats aim to portray Carlson as too conservative for Washington's taste. To illustrate, they will likely remind voters of last month's huge GOP rally in Puyallup, where Carlson appeared onstage with Rush Limbaugh.

Carlson says his political opponents and many in the media have him pegged wrong. "They want to call me an extremist and the label doesn't fit," he said during a recent radio appearance.

The Republican Mainstream Committee of Washington agrees. The group, which seeks to build the party's moderate wing, has endorsed Carlson and recently donated $1,200 to his campaign.

Still, Seattle pollster Stuart Elway says Carlson has two big challenges: He's not widely known, and those who do know him think of him as conservative.

To win on Nov. 7, Carlson will have to succeed on the vast middle ground of Washington's electorate.

Carlson plans to spend a lot of time campaigning east of the Cascades, where his radio show never reached and his name is less known. And, unlike Craswell in '96, Carlson will likely stick to secular themes and issues. Tomorrow, Carlson said, he will propose a series of debates with Locke.

In his quest to topple Locke, Carlson is vowing to reform Olympia. In order to reduce class sizes, for example, he says he will get rid of 4,000 bureaucrats and hire that many more teachers.

He says that he will force the state Department of Transportation to build more roads and that he wants to overhaul the Department of Social and Health Services.

Locke's advisers, meanwhile, say he will continue pushing familiar campaign messages: Improve education, expand health-care coverage and protect the environment. And stress that, during his time as governor, Washington's overall economy has boomed and unemployment has been low.

"He hasn't done anything to derail the good economy, and people appreciate that," said Seattle attorney Bill Marler, an adviser on Locke's campaign.

At the Democrats' primary gathering last night, Locke made no reference to Carlson. But he criticized Republicans for their television ads questioning Locke's actions on meth labs and Zy'Nyia Nobles, a 3-year-old Tacoma girl whose mother allegedly kicked her to death.

"No amount of negative TV ads or distortion will drive out our spirit or our voices," he told a cheering crowd at the Arctic Building in downtown Seattle.

Crime might play prominently in the campaign.

Locke, a former deputy prosecutor, often touts his anti-crime record. Carlson, meanwhile, is quick to remind voters that he was the driving force behind the "three strikes, you're out" initiative, requiring life sentences for third-time felons, and "hard time for armed crime," which lengthened sentences for gun-toting criminals.

Carlson frequently questions Locke's leadership. But the GOP nominee's own lack of management experience will probably become an issue as well. Beyond his role as a commentator, Carlson's biggest achievements are the conservative think-tank he co-founded and the ballot initiatives he led.

Locke, on the other hand, has never lost an election. Before being elected governor, he served five terms in the state House and one term as King County executive.