Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Of 1999 Lived Up To Predictions

MIAMI - After a quiet start, the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season turned into the busy one forecasters predicted, with five major hurricanes that left dozens dead and towns under water as millions fled coastal areas.

The season, which led to months of cleanup, officially ends today and supports forecasters' long-term prediction that several decades of relatively quiet Atlantic storm seasons are over.

All of this season's major hurricanes - Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny - were Category 4, characterized by top sustained winds of 131 mph to 155 mph.

"We've never had five Category 4s all in one year before," said Max Mayfield, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center. "We've had 20 major hurricanes over the last five years, and that's a record."

Hurricane Floyd was the most destructive in the United States in 1999, destroying or damaging 12,000 homes. It caused more than $6 billion in damage in North Carolina alone and was blamed for at least 56 deaths.

Lenny, which developed swiftly into a hurricane Nov. 14 in the waning days of the six-month season, killed 13 people in the Caribbean. Preliminary damage totals have reached $182 million.

Colorado State University professor William Gray, renowned for accurate hurricane-season forecasts, had one of his best years. He and his team predicted 14 named storms and nine hurricanes; as of Friday, 12 storms and eight hurricanes were recorded. They accounted for at least 93 dead.

A Nov. 24 summary from Gray's team said the atmosphere and ocean conditions blamed for increased hurricane activity seem to run in 25- to 50-year cycles. Things were slow from the 1970s until 1995, so the early decades of the 21st century could be busy ones.

"Our method is to look at the past and assume the future will be like the past," said Gray, who examined data from 1950, 1955, 1961, 1964 and 1995, when climate signals were similar to this year's.

"There isn't enough work being done in studying how the atmosphere has worked in the past as sort of a tool to better climate prediction," said Gray, whose research has been hampered by funding cuts.

Short-term forecasts, while improving, still are not as good as Mayfield would like them to be.

"The sad truth is that the average track forecast error in 24 hours is about 100 miles," he said.

That may help explain why traffic jams turned short journeys into odysseys as people drove inland, fleeing Floyd. Officials in several southeastern states are working on ways to ease future evacuations, but Mayfield offered a simple suggestion.

"We really need to try to evacuate tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles," he said.

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Hurricane season

Storms from the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season, which ran from June 1 to Nov. 30, including dates, top wind speed and lives lost. Category 4 storms:

Hurricane Bret: Aug. 18-22. 140 mph. Four deaths.

Hurricane Cindy: Aug. 19-31. 140 mph.

Hurricane Floyd: Sept. 7-18. 155 mph. At least 56 deaths.

Hurricane Gert: Sept. 11-21. 145 mph.

Hurricane Lenny: Nov. 12-21. 150 mph. 13 deaths.

Other storms:

Tropical Storm Arlene: June 11-18. 60 mph.

Hurricane Dennis: Aug. 24-Sept. 5. 105 mph. Five traffic deaths in North Carolina, three drowned in Florida.

Tropical Storm Emily: Aug. 24-28. 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey: Sept. 19-22. 61 mph.

Hurricane Irene: Oct. 14-19. 103 mph. Seven deaths.

Hurricane Jose: Oct. 17-25. 100 mph. At least five deaths.

Tropical Storm Katrina: Oct. 28-Nov. 1. 40 mph.

National Hurricane Center, Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, Associated Press reports