Well, If Microsoft Built Cars . . .

"Strange! That a man who has wit enough to write a satire should have folly enough to publish it." - Benjamin Franklin

Some journalists, believe it or not, don't salivate at the thought of writing about business and investing.

In their minds, and in the minds of some readers, too, business and investing are viewed as arid topics, littered with dull statistics and themes too complex for such new age minds to ponder.

The biggest bull market in our lifetimes has changed those perceptions to a degree. Some college graduates in journalism, for example, actually seek jobs as business reporters. Readers who struggled with the television listings 20 years ago memorize balance sheets today.

So interest is spreading. But there's this hangover thinking that the reporting of business is draped in gray cloth, virtually colorless in a world of reds, yellows, blues and greens.

Not all of us believe it has to be that way. Good writing can blend with colorful writing to make an interesting story, whether it's in business, general news, sports or elsewhere. Exceptions exist. A writer would be reluctant to take liberties writing about a company's massive layoffs, or an executive's firing, or the death of a distinguished person.

Sometimes, on the eve of a vacation - don't look for these treasured words next Sunday - it is difficult to take anything seriously.

Maybe that's why the following seemed appropriate at this time. It doesn't have a lot to do with anything, other than to be a wry comment on something Bill Gates said.

The Microsoft chairman, comparing computers with the auto industry, said, "If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry, we'd all be driving cars that cost $25 and got 1,000 miles to the gallon."

That caught the eye of Eric Bjorgen, who works for The Leuthold Group investment advisory in Minneapolis. Cribbing from jeers spread for years over the Internet, Bjorgen believes GM should have responded like this:

-- If Microsoft built cars, every time it repainted the lines on the road you would have to buy a new car.

-- If Microsoft built cars, occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason, and you would just accept this, restart, and drive on.

-- If Microsoft built cars, occasionally executing a maneuver would cause your car to stop and fail, and you would have to re-install the engine.

-- If Microsoft built cars, you could only have one person in the car at a time, unless you bought "Car 95" or "CarNT." But, then you would have to buy more seats.

-- If Microsoft built cars, Macintosh would make a car that was powered by the sun, was reliable, five times as fast, twice as easy to drive, but would only run on 5 percent of the roads.

-- If Microsoft built cars, the Macintosh car owners would get expensive Microsoft upgrades to their cars, which would make their cars run much slower.

-- If Microsoft built cars, the oil, gas, and alternator warning lights would be replaced by a single "general car default" warning light.

-- If Microsoft built cars, the airbag system would say "are you sure?" before going off.

Investment people like to have fun, especially at the expense of one of the world's dominant companies.

Time to sell, or buy?

So much for fun. The new topic is Boeing.

A while back, the company said Asia wasn't really a problem, and Boeing didn't have to make adjustments.

Then, it said Asia was something of a problem, but all that meant was a few planes scheduled for delivery in a year or two would slide out aways, maybe another year or two.

Last week, it said Asia has become more of a negative force, and it would have to alter production. The implication was the adjustments wouldn't be too significant, since 550 planes would be generated in both 1998 and 1999.

But instead of an expanded production schedule for the fleet's crown jewel, the 747, Boeing would cut back the 747 and fabricate more 737s.

Imagine Mercedes Benz owning Volkswagen, and cutting back Mercedes production to pop out more VWs. It might be the right business decision, but profits could get plastered.

The 747 is Boeing's most expensive commercial airliner, at a list price of between $158 million and $176 million. The 737, Boeing's most prolific jetliner, fetches $35 million to $40 million.

That means that the profit from the sale of a 747 is roughly equal to the entire price of a 737. Any switch in production from 747s to 737s is costly.

Boeing stock inched down, but wasn't clobbered by the news. That's because analysts have been ahead of Boeing, expecting that the dire financial straits of Asia would translate into lower profits at the Lazy B.

It is interesting that Boeing stock in the summer of 1998 is priced precisely as Boeing stock was in the summer of 1996. At a time when production rampups should be feathering the bottom line, production snags - still Boeing's biggest headache - and Asia paint that line red.

Since the start of 1996, the Dow Jones industrial average is up about 75 percent. But Boeing, one of the Dow's biggest stinkers, has gained only 15 percent. If the stock was purchased at 1996's high, in December, you're down 15 percent.

So what does the investor do? Analysts say you should buy when the gloom is thickest. When your gut hurts at the thought of throwing money at a lemon, that's usually the best time buy that lemon.

The question is, is this the bottom? Woodard's Folly, the 21st century production plan that took Boeing back to the 19th, may not be done painting the town red.

The good news is, if you're interested in buying Boeing stock, the line's a lot shorter these days.

Stocks and bonds

The Dow Jones industrial average of 30 blue-chip stocks fell 202.77 points last week to finish at 8,834.94.

The WM Group Northwest 50, 50 stocks weighted by their regional economic impact, fell 76.89 points to 5,403.12.

The U.S. Treasury's 30-year bond last week soared nearly $20 per $1,000 of face value to close at $1,067. That was priced to yield 5.65 percent, said Mark Rodgers, Seattle-Northwest Securities vice president.

Alan Greenspan's comments at midweek that the Federal Reserve Board was unlikely to raise interest rates while Asia's economic problems persisted boosted bonds. During trading, the bond yield descended as low as 5.64 percent, lowest in the history of the 30-year bond that started trading in 1977.

Tax-exempt bonds bounced about $10 higher per $1,000 of face value, reported Judith Cochrane, Seafiurst Bank municipal trader. Treasury-market strength helped. Also, June 1 and July 1 are key interest-paying and redemption dates for bondholders, putting more cash in buyers' hands.

The Seafirst Northwest Muni Bond Index moved 0.08 to 5.15 percent from 5.23 percent a week ago, Cochrane said. With refunding issues expected in this low-rate period, munis may continue to underperform Treasuries, Cochrane said.

Wall Street Recap appears Sunday in the Business section of The Seattle Times. Greg Heberlein's phone message number is 206-464-2267. His e-mail address is: gheberlein@seatimes.com ------------------------------- Readers portfolio 10 NW stocks preferred by readers

%CHANGE STOCK SINCE 1/98. Alaska Air +35.8 . Boeing -8.3 . Costco +34.5 . Eagle Hardware +5.8 . Icos +8.2 . Micron Technology -18.8 . Microsoft +32.7 . Nike +13.1 . Starbucks +28.0 . Washington Mutual +4.6 .

Average: +13.6%.

What $1,000 invested in those stocks would be today: $1,136.

Readers' non-portfolio 10 NW stocks picked randomly

%CHANGE STOCK SINCE 1/98 . ------------------------------- Columbia Banking +33.3 . Emeritus -14.7 . GST Telecom -7.4 . Labor Ready +89.0 . Paccar +3.6 . Puget Sound Energy -8.9 . RadiSys -33.6 . Riverview Bancorp -4.9 . Schnitzer Steel -15.8 . SeaMed -6.1 .

Average: +3.5%.

What $1,000 invested in those stocks would be today: $1,035.