Civil War Has Weakened Burundi, But Sanctions May Be The Final Blow

THE THREAT of sanctions hangs over Burundi following the military takeover of the government. Some say a trade embargo could ruin the country's fragile economy. -----------------------------------------------------------------

BUJUMBURA, Burundi - A huge crane hoisted tons of sugar, imported to make beer, onto the quay at Burundi's port on Lake Tanganyika.

When the military took over the country last week, the breweries didn't shut down. The earthy aroma of fermented grain wafted through the capital even when streets were deserted except for the soldiers.

But what a military coup couldn't stop, economic sanctions may.

On Wednesday, East African nations threatened to impose sanctions to force Burundi's new military leader, Pierre Buyoya, to abide by constitutional rule. But they did not agree on the details, leaving that to "technical experts."

The fragile economy of one of the poorest countries in the world, already battered by three years of civil war, could be ruined by a trade embargo.

"If there was an embargo from our neighbors, it would be the death of our country," Thomas Minani, director general of the state-run Coffee Office, said yesterday. "Everyone will suffer."

Like most African nations, Burundi is battling a huge foreign debt that has strangled economic development. Its $1 billion-plus debt is four times its gross national product.

U.S. aid stopped

Most foreign loans to Burundi were cut off two years ago, with the United States terminating $3 million in development aid after last week's coup.

Sanctions would have an even greater impact on this tiny landlocked country because it depends on its neighbors to import its coffee, tea, cotton and other raw materials.

Buyoya yesterday called on "all of Burundi's foreign friends to trust the new authorities, (and) on the international community to wait and judge on their results."

The Tutsi general has said his coup was intended to prevent widespread ethnic slaughter of the type that killed 500,000 people in neighboring Rwanda over two months in 1994. In Burundi, three years of Hutu-Tutsi fighting have killed 150,000 people, mostly civilians.

Bujumbura and other major cities are inhabited mainly by Tutsis, who make up 14 percent of the country's 6 million people. Many of the Hutus, 85 percent of the population, have been pushed into the countryside by the Tutsi-dominated army.

Some prefer sanctions

Some in Burundi said sanctions were less threatening than more fighting.

"If we have to choose between death and sanctions, we choose sanctions. Machetes will kill us quicker than sanctions," said William Ndikumagenge, a Bujumbura jeep dealer.

Filip Reyntjens, a Belgian professor and authority on Burundi, said prompt sanctions could help push the coup leaders to a cease-fire. "There is a window of opportunity here, but in my view it will be a short one - about two or three weeks," he said.

Some observers point out that given how easily Burundians currently smuggle goods to and from neighbors Zaire and Rwanda, the "full economic blockade" promised by the Organization of African States may be futile.

"The big question is how they are going to implement these sanctions," one African diplomat said yesterday. "If they are applied, they will cripple the economy of the country. It is a big if."

If sanctions were implemented, the border with Zaire would be especially problematic because, one diplomat said, "for all intents and purposes, Zaire does not have a government."

Information from The Washington Post is included in this report.