M's Future Dogged By Huge Questions

PEORIA, Ariz. - With major-league regulars due back Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners have to refigure both the team that will take the Kingdome field Opening Day, and how they will pay it.

And there is no telling which will cause the biggest upheaval.

Personnel?

Before the abbreviated 144-game season can open at the Kingdome - probably April 26 or 27, but the American League's revised schedule won't be announced until Wednesday, Pete Vanderwarker, Mariner assistant director of public relations said today - the club must ponder these personnel questions.

-- Will trade talks to send third baseman Edgar Martinez and his $3.3 million salary to the Mets come back to life?

-- Will pitcher Dave Fleming, eligible for salary arbitration that could land him a contract of $1 million per season, be offered a contract?

-- Will Alex Rodriguez play shortstop at the $109,000 major-league minimum, or will it be Luis Sojo at his non-guaranteed $350,000?

-- Will pitcher Jeff Nelson and his $250,000 salary be kept at all? Will designated-hitter Reggie Jefferson be offered a reduced deal to return as a free agent?

-- Will pitcher Greg Hibbard start the season on the disabled list, allowing the club to start cashing in on insurance coverage that pays 70 percent of his $2.4 million salary?

Or could it be none of the above? The Mariners are caught in a classic rundown. On one hand, they cannot afford payroll expansion. On the other, they have to be competitive to improve their chances of a new stadium.

"Seattle had a lot of intangibles on the bargaining table," said one member of the Player Relations Committee, which negotiated for the owners. "You've got to wonder how this will play out for them now. They need the new ballpark. They are taking a consensus-building approach in Seattle and that's sensible. You'd like to think the community will reciprocate, and realize how valuable a major-league franchise is in so many ways, that it gives back far more in the long term than it costs, and give them the help they need"

Payroll?

While no firm payroll budget has been established for Seattle, this year's total initially was to be between $28 million and $30 million, with success on the field allowing the upper figure to be considered. Seattle's system of payroll accounting adds $2 million for contingencies, such as incentives, call-ups, and replacements for players put on the disabled list.

Also, there will be some added expenses for additional players in the first 30 days of the season when rosters are sure to expand.

With Seattle losing $7 million to $8 million in revenue during baseball's failed war to end all wars, the Mariners' fiscal planning might be redone with Argyros Arithmetic. And they are not alone.

Several baseball executives, contacted as the teams' bargaining position eroded with a court injunction, said emphatically that baseball's economic system is in shock.

"We have losses in the vicinity of $700 million and counting; that's about a third of the industry's revenues," said John Harrington, Boston chief operating officer. "Speaking only for ourselves, there is no question we have altered our plans concerning our payroll and plans for pursuing free agents."

Dave Dombrowski, Red Sox general manager, has revised his payroll target from about $40 million before the strike to "closer to $20 million."

Mariner President Chuck Armstrong acknowledged the deepening of the club's financial hole.

"We have to re-think a number of concepts that we had under consideration," he said. "Our ownership has shown its commitment every offseason, but they have definite limits as to how far they can extend and how many losses they can withstand."

One baseball executive predicted the union will accuse the owners of collusion again.

"There are over 100 free agents," he said. "A lot of them will have to take a lot less than they might have expected . . . Look for a lot of one-year deals. Look for a lot of them to lose their jobs. But it won't be collusion, it will be reality."

The Seattle payroll starts with 11 players signed for a total of $26.4 million, including right fielder Jay Buhner, who today would not get the $14.5 million, three-year deal he signed days before the moratorium on signings was declared in December.

If Fleming and Tino Martinez, eligible for salary arbitration, are tendered contracts and wind up with about $1 million each, the payroll could be $6 million higher, about $32.4 million. With alterations such as dropping Fleming, Nelson and new outfielder Alex Diaz, the savings could be over $2 million.

If Hibbard is not ready to pitch, as could be the case, until midseason, the payroll would be about $29 million. If Hibbard misses the season, another $1 million would be saved, for a payroll of about $28 million.

But that does not include the $2 million allotted for contingencies, which would seem to be a backbreaker.

There seems about as much chance of adding once-expected free agents as Mount St. Mary's had of making the Final Four. Forget veteran pitcher Scott Sanderson, catcher Chad Kreuter, infielders Joey Cora or Dick Schofield.

"There doesn't seem to be any possibilities of talking to guys we had intended to," Manager Lou Piniella said. "There are 100 (115) free agents out there, about four a team. They'll be lucky now to see teams sign one or two. It isn't likely we'll be in that group."

Piniella wants a veteran pitcher such as Sanderson and more left-handed hitting off the bench, such as switch-hitters Kreuter and Cora. Newcomer Doug Strange could be brought up from Tacoma, and Jefferson, released several weeks ago, could be brought back.

If Edgar Martinez is traded, Mike Blowers would take over third base full time. Rodriguez is likely to end up in Tacoma with second baseman Arquimedez Pozo, leaving Luis Sojo at shortstop, Felix Fermin at second and Tino Martinez at first.

The potential backup first basemen are Marc Newfield and Greg Pirkl, both right-handed hitters, as is backup catcher Chris Howard.

If rosters are expanded, shortstop Larry Sheets (.344 with only two errors in 26 games at Calgary) could be in Seattle. So would left-handed-hitting catcher Jerry Willard and about six pitchers.

Seattle expects left-handed offense from the outfield. All-Star Ken Griffey Jr. returns in center, and penciled in left is Darren Bragg, who hit .315 in Venezuela with a league-record 70 walks and a .491 on-base percentage.

Diaz, acquired on waivers from Milwaukee last October, figures to be the primary backup outfielder and gives Seattle a switch-hitter who could also see some DH duty.

Rich Amaral's versatility and speed puts him in the club's plans.

With only about a dozen members of the 40-man roster considered locks to be at the Kingdome on Opening Day, the pitchers could be as fluid as the position players.

Chris Bosio may be the key to the starting rotation. He also may be the only right-hander - staff ace Randy Johnson, Dave Fleming and Tim Davis hold three of the other four spots.

Despite that, Bosio also could be traded to relieve pressure on the payroll.

The fifth spot? Unless Piniella can land Sanderson, Seattle will rely on John Cummings, Jim Converse or Roger Salkeld.

In the bullpen, this could be the year for Ron Villone, who had a monster winter in Puerto Rico. Veteran lefty Lee Guetterman may be a virtual lock after six weeks of spring training.

Bill Risley and Bobby Ayala, who along with Nelson and Davis made Seattle's bullpen more effective last year, are right-handed certainties. If Bob Wells, acquired before the Aug. 12 strike, does not start, he could be in the bullpen.

The starting pitcher for the first game will be named Randy. Mariner fans will be pleased his last name is Johnson, not McCament.

MARINER SALARIES --------------------------------------- PLAYER ESTIMATED SALARY

Ken Griffey $7 million # . Randy Johnson $4.15 million # . Chris Bosio $4 million # . Jay Buhner $3.6 million # . Edgar Martinez $3.3 million # . Greg Hibbard $2.4 million # . Tino Martinez $1 million. Dave Fleming $1 million. Felix Fermin $850,000 # . Mike Blowers $500,000 # . Luis Sojo $350,000. Lee Guetterman $300,000-m. Rich Amaral $250,000. Bobby Ayala $250,000. Jeff Nelson $250,000. Alex Diaz $220,000. Curt Wilkerson $200,000-m. Doug Strange $200,000-m. Dan Wilson $200,000. Bill Risley $150,000. Tim Davis $150,000. John Cummings $150,000. Jim Converse $140,000. Marc Newfield $130,000. Greg Pirkl $120,000. Chris Howard $120,000. Mac Suzuki $109,000 # . Alex Rodriguez $109,000 # . Bob Wells $109,000. Darren Bragg $109,000. Ron Villone $109,000. . # Guaranteed. m - on minor-league contract.