A Post-Christmas Gift: Your Top 10 Stocks For 1994

"Mathematics may be defined as the subject in which we never know what we are talking about, nor whether what we are saying is true." - Bertrand Russell -------------------------------------

Four lines up and down, one line across the four; four lines up and down, one line across; four lines up and down . . . .

On a sheet of paper, start doing that. Do it so long - you may need the back of the paper, too - that you end up with 2,520 lines.

Now you can relate to the pure joy of calculating totals for the readers' annual stock selections for 1994. Before you take that as a cynical comment - reporters cynical? c'mon - take it literally. Counting ballots listing Northwest stocks from A to W (sorry, X, Y and Z) sent in by loyal readers, and reading the occasional appended notes, is more pleasureful than opening Christmas presents.

(Writers can get away with the silliness above for two reasons: editors left early for the holiday weekend, and writers know both their readers are still playing with their Christmas toys and won't have time to read this anyway.)

Truth be told, 252 citizens shirked their holiday tasks and took the time to find 10 Northwest stock names to help us make a consensus Readers' Portfolio to watch throughout 1994. The best single reader's portfolio (wedded or otherwise) will be honored in early 1995.

More readers this year than in the two previous years selected smaller, lesser-known stocks, knowing the percentage gains can be more dramatic. Yet, big-name stocks dominated the top 10.

Before enumerating those, some reader eccentricities merit attention.

-- R.E. Robb Jr. gets the long-distance award. The entry was from Shawnee, Kan., about 1,900 miles away. (Could be an expensive winner's lunch.)

-- A reader wrote to say that a friend of his was the one who wrote to say he was tired of reading about the contest all the time. "But that's because his picks lost money last year," he said. (So much for friendship.)

-- Some entrants exude confidence. Greg Crowe of Seattle wrote, "I look forward to having lunch with you in a year." (We'll try to invite Hannibal Lecter along.)

-- Chuck Novak, also of Seattle, took a more reasonable approach: "Although I'm confident this is a winning list, I still plan to keep my job until the big prize for 1994 is awarded. (Big prize? I should have been told.)

-- This Renton family, which shall go unnamed, has its act together. Spouses sent in separate entries: "This is a grudge match against my husband, who I feel spends entirely too much time following Wall Street." (I saw Ms. Street perform in a Way Off Broadway revue once.)

-- This one came from a man with great ambitions: "If I win, I would like you and I to debate Ross Perot on the Larry King show." (Why go in unarmed?)

-- Richard Burnham of Seattle got gold fever. Anticipating a rugged 1994, his first five picks were the Northwest's five publicly held mining stocks. (Too much "Paint Your Wagon" for this guy.)

-- Looking forward to being feted, James Hill of Seattle noted his picks were "worse than random." "This should adequately explain why I am an hourly employee and have never appeared as a guest on `Wall Street Week.' " (Or Wall Street Recap, for that matter.) He was kind enough to add, "I prefer my fete medium-well, thank you. (Consult your podiatrist, or see Lecter, above.)

-- For the third straight year, we got the 27 entries of Jim Inglebritson's sixth-grade class at Olympic View Elementary in Federal Way. Their favorites matched the wider readership's almost perfectly. (Jim should stop making those kids write those sweet little notes every time.)

-- Then there was the ballot that listed stocks from A to A. The imaginative selector chose all of the stocks beginning with the letter A in the Northwest Stock Report. Fortunately, there were 10 of them. (That's the kind of imagination I could take to lunch.)

So, the top 10 picks were: 1. Microsoft, 94 votes; 2. Nike, 77; 3. Boeing, 70; 4. Starbucks, 66; 5. Plum Creek Timber, 64; 6. Immunex, 60; 7. Washington Mutual Savings Bank, 56; 8. Flow International, 54; 9. Carver, 49; 10. Quality Food Centers, 47.

The two go-for-the-gold picks there are Flow and Carver, two lower-priced issues that might help keep the readers' picks out of the red this year.

Once again, we assembled 10 randomly selected stocks. You recall the random stocks lost in 1991, but won in 1992 and have a lock on 1993. We tried to get a selector to replace last year's model, Helen Jung. But nobody wanted the stigma, and Helen, a metro reporter, wouldn't take no for an answer.

So once we put 145 stock names in a hat (155 Northwest stocks minus the 10 selected above), Jung did her thing. The 10 random picks (listed randomly):

Paccar, Interlinq, Arrow Transportation, Sequent Computer Systems, Data I/O, Louisiana Pacific, Fred Meyer, Icos, Itron, Washington Water Power.

Two ballot clerks watched as Jung reached into the green construction hat 10 times, so it is known the two repeaters - Sequent and Washington Water Power - were accidental. Paccar was, too, even though the Paccar chairman is on The Times' board.

The readers' vote totals:

Microsoft 94; Nike 77; Boeing 70; Starbucks 66; Plum Creek Timber L.P. 64; Immunex 60; Washington Mutual Savings Bank 56; Flow International 54; Carver 49; Quality Food Centers 47; McCaw Cellular Communications 46; ProCyte 44; Eagle Hardware & Garden 43; Midisoft 41; Price/Costco 40; Icos 39; Edmark 38; Aldus and Lattice Semiconductor, 34 each.

Data I/O, Digital Systems International, Nordstrom, Safeco, 33 each; Paccar 31; Burlington Resources 30; Albertson's 28; Fred Meyer and Weyerhaeuser, 27 each; Egghead, Key Tronic and Micron Technology, 26 each; Lin Broadcasting and Esterline Technologies, 25 each; Hecla Mining, Lamonts Apparel, NeoRx and Sun Sportswear, 24 each; Pegasus Gold and Riedel Environmental Technology, 23 each; Pacific Nuclear Systems and TJ International, 22 each; Expeditors International and Alaska Air Group, 21 each; West One Bancorp. 20; Advanced Technology Laboratories, CellPro, Sierra On-Line and SpaceLabs Medical, 19 each; Eldec, Interlinq and Omega Environmental, 18 each.

Ackerley Communications and Saliva Diagnostic Systems, 17 each; Hillhaven, Idaho Power, Imre and Seattle FilmWorks, 16 each; Airborne Freight, Coeur d'Alene Mines, Wall Data and Washington Federal Savings, 15 each; In Focus Systems and Sprouse-Reitz Stores, 14 each; Heart Technology, Jay Jacobs, Oregon Metallurgical, Prism Group and Synthetech, 13 each; AirSensors and Sequent Computer Systems, 12 each; Ag-Bag International, Columbia Banking System, Electro Scientific Industries, Fluke, Oregon Steel Mills, Sunshine Mining, Thousand Trails, Washington Energy and Willamette Industries, 11 each; Gold Reserve, Bioject, InterWest Savings Bank, Longview Fibre, Structural Instrumentation, Summit Bancorp, Utilx and Washington Water Power, 10 each.

BMC West, Cascade Savings Bank, Horizon Bank, Mentor Graphics, Paragon Trade Brands and WTD Industries, 9 each; Epitope, Interpoint, Red Lion Inns L.P., TRM Copy Centers, Western Star and Wholesome & Hearty, 8 each; Metropolitan Bancorp, Pacific Telecom, Pope Resources L.P., Pope & Talbot, Puget Sound Power & Light, Industrial Funding, 7 each; Morrison Knudsen, Sterling Financial, Timberline Software and U.S. Bancorp, 6 each; International Yogurt, Boise Cascade, First Mutual Savings Bank, Northwest Natural Gas, Paulson Capital, Penwest, Precision Castparts, Tektronix and Todd Corp., 5 each.

Oesi Power, Applied Laser Systems, Cascade Natural Gas, Key Technology, Lindal Cedar Homes, Louisiana-Pacific, PacifiCorp, Portland General and Univar, 4 each; Arrow Transportation, Active Voice, Cascade Corp., Jackson Co. Federal Savings, National Securities and Protocol Systems, 3 each; Cellular Technical Services, CFI ProServices, DDL Electronics, Elmer's Restaurants, Flir Systems and MicroProbe, 2 each; Centennial Bancorp., Hollywood Entertainment, Itron, Planar Systems and Western Bank, 1 each; Acres Gaming, Adaptive Solutions, American Pacific Bank, Barrett Business Systems, Commercial Bancorp, Holly Residential Properties, MK Gold, Momentum, Monaco Coach, Rentrak, Schnitzer Steel, TriQuint Semiconductor, 0 each.

If you think your 1993 list did well, please drop a note and we'll check your entries after Jan. 1. No need to send your picks, we'll go back to the original list you sent. We've had a handful who say they are in the plus-30 percent or plus-40 group.

STOCKS AND BONDS

The Dow Jones industrial average of 30 blue-chip stocks gained 6.45 points to close at 3,757.72, just shy of the record close of 3,764.43 set Dec. 13.

The Murphey Favre Northwest 50, 50 stocks weighted by their regional economic impact, fell 19.48 points to close at 2,422.69.

The U.S. Treasury's 30-year bellwether bond gained nearly $10 per $1,000 of face value to close at $1,004. That was priced to yield 6.23 percent, said Seattle Northwest Securities' Matt Lynch. Lynch said an excellent five-year bond auction Wednesday drove the bond at a time when trading was extremely thin.

The auction helped municipal bonds, too, reported Judith Cochrane, Seafirst Bank municipal trader. Tax-exempts added about $5 per $1,000 of face value. She said with many on vacation, this week should be quiet.

Wall Street Recap appears Sunday in the Business section of The Seattle Times.