Profile Of Serial-Arson Suspect -- Psychological Description Played A Key Role In Arrest Of Suspect

Investigators relied on years of research by psychologists, descriptions from witnesses and volumes of clues left at fire scenes to sketch a profile of a man thought to be responsible for a large number of the 100 unsolved arsons under investigation.

Paul Kenneth Keller, 27, an Everett advertising salesman, is the only major suspect in a six-month string of fires in King, Snohomish and Kittitas counties that caused millions in property damage, investigators said yesterday.

Keller is being held in lieu of $1 million bail in the Snohomish County Jail.

Copycat fire-starters are under investigation, but the number of fires possibly linked to them is "not of the same magnitude as the person now in custody," said Jim Provencher, spokesman for the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. The ATF has led the half-year probe.

Provencher said Keller has been linked to roughly 40 to 50 of the arsons.

"We feel confident by the time the investigation reaches some conclusion, the numbers will be high . . . if not higher than what was originally publicized at the (news) conference," Provencher said.

Keller has been cooperating with investigators, Provencher said yesterday.

Only weeks ago, investigators appeared to still be uncertain who was responsible for the fires.

Then, at a Jan. 27 news conference, officials with the Sno-King Response Team released three sketches of possible suspects. They also released a physical description of the arsonist and information from a psychological profile created by investigators.

Keller closely resembles one of the sketches.

A Snohomish County firefighter, John Hinchcliffe, said he recognized Keller from the sketch and called the hotline, providing a name and occupation from a business card he was given by Keller. It took 1 1/2 hours to get through on the arson hotline, so many calls were prompted by the sketches.

"I still feel kinda sick to my stomach about the whole thing. It's kinda strange to know somebody who's a suspect in such a serious crime," said Hinchcliffe, a Snohomish County Fire District 4 captain who met Keller six years ago while working at the Lake Stevens Fire Department.

How did the sketch and profile seemingly pinpoint so many critical details about Keller? Did investigators already have their sights on Keller and simply gave out his description?

That's a question Provencher won't answer directly. He would not say when Keller became a primary suspect, only that it was "recently."

Provencher did say the psychologists' research on suspects involved in past arsons identified traits common to many arsonists.

"Things that have happened to them, whether it be developmental things, (or) personal relationships that would cause them to become involved in this type of activity," he said. "It's really kind of interesting how these profiles are developed, but it's done on the basis of a great deal of study by psychological professionals."

The suspect's physical description is gathered from a number of sources, including clues left at fire scenes and witness accounts.

Authorities last month had said:

-- The suspected arsonist is a white man in his 30s. Keller is white and 27.

-- The arsonist is between 5 feet 10 and 6 feet 1. Keller is 6 feet, according to his driver's-license information.

-- The arsonist is between 165 and 170 pounds. Keller is 155, according to his driver's license.

-- The arsonist has dark hair and a neatly trimmed moustache. Keller has both.

-- The arsonist was well-dressed. Keller, who worked as an ad salesman for his father's advertising firm, was often well-dressed.

-- The arsonist may have a history of mental illness or alcohol abuse. Keller's father told authorities his son had numerous emotional problems as a child.

-- The man may have some ties to Central Washington, authorities had said. Keller is suspected of setting four fires in Central Washington.

Now that a suspect is under arrest, should homeowners let down their guard?

"I'm just limited in what I can say," answered Provencher. "I can't say `Yes, you can relax now, the problem is definitely over.' I can say that we're working toward that end.

"I do feel comfortable in saying certainly the threat is greatly reduced."