New Map A Mixed Blessing For Parties

For the Democratic members of the state Redistricting Commission, Seattle's legislative map presented a dilemma.

Though still by far the state's biggest city and the wellspring of liberal Democratic voters, Seattle has lost population in the past decade relative to the suburbs and other cities around Puget Sound - areas that tend to be more conservative than the city.

So the Democratic commissioners were faced with trying to keep a partisan advantage in the Legislature with shrinking numbers.

The result, in the plan the commission adopted New Year's Eve, appears to be mixed at best for the Democrats, with the more likely outcome that Republicans will grow stronger at the Statehouse over the coming decade.

Of course, it's impossible to measure the political push-and-pull of redistricting with any certainty until this fall's elections. But the instant analysis among political experts and the commissioners themselves is that Republicans will have their best shot in years at picking up clout in and around Seattle, while Democrats are left hoping to make inroads in Eastern and Southwest Washington.

On the congressional map, meanwhile, the realistic goal of both parties, beyond preserving the seats they currently hold, was to angle for an advantage in Republican John Miller's 1st District and to secure a fighting chance in the new 9th, the extra district awarded Washington after the 1990 census.

Though both parties claim to be satisfied with the results, the preliminary verdict here too is a marginal victory for the Republicans. The Democrats may win most of the state's congressional seats, but the GOP made the most of its chances in both the 1st and the 9th, observers say.

Miller, who hasn't had an easy time in his previous elections, didn't get a secure Republican district, as he might have hoped, but he did get a few more Republican voters. After tweaking the boundaries, the district now includes the northwest tip of Seattle, along with Redmond, Kirkland, Edmonds and the Kitsap Peninsula.

The commission's rough measure of party loyalty - the 1988 Bush-Dukakis presidential election - shows the new edge. In its existing configuration, the 1st District split almost evenly in 1988. As redrawn last week, nearly 52 percent of the voters would have cast ballots for Bush.

Nobody yet knows whether that slight edge will be enough to tempt Miller to run again. He's been coy about his plans, holding out the possibility that he'll run for U.S. Senate or take a hiatus from politics. But, as Republican political consultant Brett Bader says, "At least the commission didn't make the decision for him."

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Maria Cantwell of Mountlake Terrace looks more and more like a 1st District congressional candidate. Her exploratory committee is sponsoring a $125-a-ticket fund-raiser for her Tuesday.

In the 9th, the most obvious benefactor of redistricting is Paul Barden, the Republican King County councilman who has made no secret of his ambition for Congress. Although the new district is almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, Barden has the advantage of being the first name mentioned in a district without an incumbent.

Part of the problem the Democratic commissioners had in drawing the 9th District boundaries was, in fact, their lack of a candidate. While across the table the GOP negotiators were making sure to include this Barden neighborhood and exclude that anti-Barden neighborhood, the Democrats didn't even know whom they were trying to help.

The most frequently mentioned possibility, state Senate Minority Leader Marcus Gaspard, D-Puyallup, has told his advisers he doesn't want the job.

A lack of candidates was never the problem for the Democrats as they redrew Washington's 49 legislative districts.

In Seattle, where they were destined to lose a district, the Democrats' problem instead was too many candidates.

Look at the results. After redistricting, eight incumbent Democrats from Greater Seattle (if you include Shoreline's Patty Murray and Mountlake Terrace's Cantwell) were sent packing to another district.

In some cases - Murray's and Cantwell's for example - that's not the problem it seems to be. If Cantwell runs for Congress, it won't matter that her legislative district is now the 26th rather than the 44th.

Murray is giving up her seat to run for U.S. Senate, so her ouster from the 1st District to the 32nd is academic as well. In fact, Murray's seatmates, Reps. Grace Cole and Nancy Rust, change districts in name only: While the numbers change, the district itself remains fairly recognizable.

The bigger problem is for the old 32nd District incumbents - Sen. Al Williams and Reps. Joanne Brekke and Dick Nelson, Democrats all, who were cast to the winds.

Williams lands in the 43rd District, where he'll have to contemplate a run against Democratic Sen. Janice Niemi in 1994 or move his residence. Brekke, who has talked about retiring, wound up in the 36th. And Nelson, the recent unsuccessful candidate for Seattle City Council, joins Niemi, Williams and Rep. Cal Anderson in the 43rd.

Anderson's current seatmate, Rep. Jesse Wineberry, is perhaps the incumbent most upset about the changes. One of two African Americans in the Legislature, Wineberry is angry that he now must challenge a fellow Democrat, Reps. Gary Locke or John O'Brien, to remain in office.

His other hope - moving up to the Senate - was dealt a setback when the commission retained Sen. Dwight Pelz in the 37th District. Wineberry and some of his supporters wanted Pelz drawn into another district so Wineberry would have a clear shot at the Senate in 1994.

Their complaints are part of larger concern about the racial balance of Seattle's legislative districts. Many 37th District Democrats, and some from the 43rd, complain the commission stacked the 37th with minorities, leaving the 43rd much whiter than it was and, theoretically, giving blacks and other minorities fewer bases from which to launch candidates.

The irony is that it was a group of African-American leaders who sought the rough outline of the 37th in the first place. Nate Miles, part of the group African-Americans Concerned About Redistricting, said he favored having one district in which the electability of a black candidate wouldn't be a long shot.

He got that in the 37th, which now has a population that is 36 percent black, 23 percent Asian American and 38 percent white.

Miles and his colleagues were unhappy Wineberry was left without a secure seat, but they had no complaint with the basic parameters of the map.

The so-called minority-majority district strategy also fit well into the Republican commissioners' plans. Commissioner Bill Polk, especially, adheres to the national GOP strategy of using the federal Voting Rights Act to clump together Democratic voting blocs, in this case minority groups.

When the African-Americans Concerned About Redistricting sent commissioners a letter Dec. 23 advocating the stacked district, a negotiated settlement to the apportionment puzzle came quickly.

It was that decision, finally, that dictated the shape of not only the 37th but also the fish-hook 11th District, now an Asian-American stronghold, the 43rd District and the 34th District, which loses a good chunk of West Seattle and gains Vashon Island. The shape of the new 34th, in turn, has prompted Sen. Phil Talmadge, the Democratic incumbent, to threaten a lawsuit.

Even so, those changes at least preserve Democratic districts - the silver lining for Democratic redistricting commissioners Shelly Yapp and Mary Kay Becker. They probably can't say the same for the new 1st Legislative District, which picked up some likely Republicans in Snohomish County, and maybe not for the new 5th District in southwest King County.

After moving over from Spokane, that district now looks like a lot of the commission's work: no better than an even bet for the Democrats.

----------------------- PUGET SOUND LEGISLATORS -----------------------

Here are old and new representatives in Puget Sound-area legislative districts:

-- Old 1st - Sen. Patty Murray, D-Shoreline; Reps. Grace Cole and Nancy Rust, both D-Seattle.

-- New 1st - Rep. Marshall Paris, R-Bothell.

-- Old 5th - Sen. Jerry Saling; Reps. Jean Silver and Todd Mielke, all R-Spokane.

-- New 5th - None.

-- 10th (no change) - Sen. Jack Metcalf, R-Langley; Reps. Mary Margaret Haugen, D-Camano Island; Sim Wilson, R-Marysville.

-- Old 11th - Sen. Leo Thorsness, R-Seattle; Reps. June Leonard, D-Seattle; Margarita Prentice, D-Renton.

-- New 11th - Leonard and Prentice.

-- Old 21st - Sen. Gary Nelson, R-Edmonds; Reps. John Beck, R-Edmonds; Jeannette Wood, R-Woodway.

-- New 21st - Nelson, Beck, Wood and Rep. Maria Cantwell, D-Mountlake Terrace.

-- 23rd (no change) - Sen. Ellen Craswell, R-Bremerton; Reps. Karen Schmidt, R-Bainbridge Island; Paul Zellinsky, D-Bremerton.

-- 25th (no change) - Sen. Marcus Gaspard, D-Puyallup; Reps. Sarah Casada; Randy Tate, both R-Puyallup.

-- 26th (no change) - Sen. Bob Oke, R-Port Orchard; Reps. Ron Meyers, D-Port Orchard; Wes Pruitt, D-Gig Harbor.

-- 27th (no change) - Sen. Lorraine Wojahn; Reps. Ruth Fisher; Art Wang, all D-Tacoma.

-- 28th (no change) - Sen. Stan Johnson, R-Tacoma; Reps. Art Broback, R-Tacoma; Shirley Winsley, R-Fircrest.

-- 29th (no change) - Sen. Slim Rasmussen; Reps. Brian Ebersole; Rosa Franklin, all D-Tacoma.

-- 30th (no change) - Sen. Peter von Reichbauer, R-Dash Point; Reps. Jean Marie Brough; Maryann Mitchell, both R-Federal Way.

-- 31st (no change) - Sen. Pam Roach, R-Auburn; Reps. Judi Roland, D-Auburn; Chris Vance, R-Kent.

-- Old 32nd - Sen. Al Williams; Reps. Joanne Brekke; Dick Nelson, all D-Seattle.

-- New 32nd - Sen. Patty Murray, D-Shoreline; Reps. Grace Cole; Nancy Rust, both D-Seattle.

-- 33rd (no change) - Sen. Adam Smith, D-Burien; Reps. Greg Fisher; Lorraine Hine, both D-Des Moines.

-- 34th (no change) - Sen. Phil Talmadge; Reps. Mike Heavey; Georgette Valle, all D-Seattle.

-- Old 36th - Sen. Ray Moore; Rep. Helen Sommers, both D-Seattle.

-- New 36th - Moore, Sommers and Rep. Joanne Brekke, D-Seattle.

-- Old 37th - Sen. Dwight Pelz; Reps. Gary Locke; John O'Brien, all D-Seattle.

-- New 37th - Pelz; Sen. Leo Thorsness, R-Seattle; Locke, O'Brien; and Rep. Jesse Wineberry, D-Seattle.

-- 38th (no change) - Sen. Larry Vognild; Reps. Richard King and Pat Scott, all D-Everett.

-- 39th (no change) - Sen. Cliff Bailey, R-Snohomish; Reps. Art Sprenkle, D-Everett; John Wynne, R-Everett.

-- 41st (no change) Sen. Emilio Cantu, R-Bellevue; Reps. Jim Horn; Fred May, both R-Mercer Island.

-- Old 43rd - Sen. Janice Niemi; Reps. Cal Anderson; Jesse Wineberry, all D-Seattle.

-- New 43rd - Niemi; Sen. Al Williams, D-Seattle; Anderson; Rep. Dick Nelson, D-Seattle.

-- Old 44th - Sen. Tim Erwin, R-Bothell; Reps. Maria Cantwell, D-Mountlake Terrace; Marshall Paris, R-Bothell.

-- New 44th - Erwin.

-- 45th (no change) - Sen. Alan Bluechel, R-Kirkland; Reps. John Betrozoff, R-Redmond; Louise Miller, R-Woodinville.

-- 46th (no change) - Sen. Nita Rinehart; Reps. Marlin Appelwick; Ken Jacobsen, all D-Seattle.

-- 47th (no change) - Sen. Sylvia Skratek, D-Kent; Rep. Elmira Forner, R-Kent.

-- 48th (no change) - Sen. Dan McDonald, R-Yarrow Point; Reps. Roy Ferguson; Steve Van Luven, both R-Bellevue.