Parapsychology: Is It Just A Coincidence?

Can scientists take ESP or mental bending of spoons seriously? Maybe not, but one researcher says in his new book that statistical evidence lends just enough intrigue to prevent a sweeping dismissal of all claims.

Richard Broughton believes it is about time his controversial field of "parapsychology" be taken seriously.

In a new book, the 44-year-old Ph.D. contends that after more than 50 years of scientific research into such controversies as mind reading and clairvoyance - often summarized as extrasensory perception, or ESP - there is solid statistical evidence that the human mind has at least weak powers that can't be explained by present physical and psychological theories.

Parapsychology is a word coined in Germany from the Greek prefix "para," meaning abnormal or "going beyond" psychology.

Broughton, director of research at the Institute for Parapsychology in Durham, N.C., readily admits that his past 20 years of research into inexplicable claims ranging from mental spoon bending to ghosts has often been frustrating.

While polls show that up to 80 percent of Americans claim to have experienced ESP, prophetic dreams, distant seeing or other phenomena, even sympathetic parapsychologists can discount most such accounts as likely coincidence.

People will remember the one dream out of 10,000 that seemed to predict the future, or the one thought out of 10,000 that two people seem to share.

A more realistic estimate of people who seem to have had inexplicable experiences seems to be 10 or 15 percent, Broughton said.

"We have made progress over hundreds of experiments," he said, "but we're dealing with weak statistical effects in phenomena that often is not subject to conscious control. It often seems to come out of the blue, maybe once or twice in a person's lifetime. In some ways it's surprising our experiments work at all."

However, in his careful and reasonably even-handed book, "Parapsychology: The Controversial Science" (Ballantine, $22), Broughton cites dozens of anecdotes and hundreds of studies he says warrants his field new respect from mainstream science.

It is a tough case to make. Parapsychology has always labored under several handicaps compared with "hard" physical sciences such as chemistry:

-- Results have not only been weak, they have been inconsistent. Some experiments seemed to demonstrate ESP or similar powers, others have not. If paranormal powers exist, why don't they show up more consistently?

-- Results have not been easily repeatable, meaning a replay of a particular experiment by other researchers - or even the same researchers - did not always bring the same favorable result. A dramatic practical example came in 1982 when a psychic team earned $120,000 after predicting correctly nine weeks in a row whether silver market prices would go up, only to perform disastrously the following year.

-- While there are many fascinating, seemingly inexplicable accounts of paranormal powers over the past 150 years, there has also been repeated fraud and sloppy research, making the field somewhat disreputable.

-- The most dramatic evidence tends to come from researchers or subjects who believe in paranormal powers. Is this because such belief is necessary to tap the ability, or because sympathizers are finding something that isn't really there?

-- There is still no persuasive theory to explain how the mind could communicate telepathically, foresee the future, move physical objects, leave the body, or accomplish similar feats. That lack is reminiscent of a quip once made about astronomers: They won't believe what their eyes see until they have a theory to explain it.

Despite these problems, Broughton said two developments have earned parapsychology more scientific credibility the past decade.

One was the adoption in 1985 of "meta-analysis," a common scientific procedure that examines all studies in a particular field to see if a preponderance of evidence can be found, even if some studies seem to conflict.

A statistical analysis of 39 ESP experiments, for example, showed hundreds of subjects guessing correctly on average about 34 percent of the time, compared with the 25 percent expected from random chance, Broughton said.

Other meta-analysis shows weaker trends. For example, numerous attempts to influence dice by thought showed on average only a one percent rate above chance, which explains why casinos continue to thrive.

Geoffrey Loftus, a psychology professor at the University of Washington familiar with statistics, said scientists would indeed be intrigued by even slight success if it cannot be explained by chance or bias.

Loftus has not seen the work Broughton cites and is himself skeptical, but added if such positive results have indeed been established, "Then in my opinion that would be incredibly interesting."

Broughton said an introductory psychology textbook has included parapsychology in its latest edition after snubbing the research for years, citing recent meta-analysis of ESP experiments as the reason for the switch.

The other encouraging development, Broughton said, is continued work by physicists in quantum mechanics that indicates at the sub-atomic level, the universe works differently and more randomly than physical laws do in everyday life. In some cases, the consciousness of the experimenter seems to affect what he observes.

While this does not clearly explain mental powers, Broughton contends it at least seems to lift them out of the "flatly impossible" realm.

"Physics is looking a lot more like what the transpersonal psychologists say than what the clinical psychologists say," agreed George A. Parks, a psychology research associate at the University of Washington who became convinced there are higher states of consciousness or supranormal powers after having two disturbing experiences himself.

In 1977, Parks was with a Whidbey Island seminar group simulating death when he developed a severe pain and passed out. When he woke shortly afterward, his mind was blank. "I had no sense of self-consciousness. I had no idea where I was, who I was, I had no memory. I was without thought." He took in the world as if seeing it for the first time, and when a dragon fly flew by, "I had an ecstasy experience, of bliss, of complete love for everything and all the people there."

In a short time the rapture and disorientation left, but the impression was so powerful it frightened Parks from personally experimenting further, while indeed convincing him the mind could achieve a different state.

This "transpersonal psychology" remains controversial among psychologists trained in psychoanalytic, behavioral or humanistic approaches, Parks added. And even those who accept it may argue that such experiences are no evidence the mind can affect physical reality.

Typical of the doubters is Robert Kohlenberg, an associate professor of psychology at the University of Washington who belongs to a Seattle group called The Society for Sensible Explanations.

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," said Kohlenberg, who once looked into a supposed Capitol Hill church haunting that turned out to have prosaic explanations.

Kohlenberg said skeptic groups mostly apply common sense.

It is very difficult to sort out parapsychological powers such as ESP from chance, coincidence or wishful thinking, he said. "The smallness of the effect has always troubled me," said Kohlenberg. "If telepathy was interesting, it would not be such a weak effect you hardly notice it."

The elusive nature of parapsychology bothers Broughton, too. Why would humans have evolved such an ability if it seems so weak? His theory is that it is a mostly subconscious survival mechanism, a kind of "sixth sense" that lets us detect danger, tell friend from foe, decide the best course, and so on.

While Broughton cites a few incidences of individuals claiming to have trained themselves into developing psychic powers, such claims are rare and unproven.

Parks theorizes that psychic power is weak because it is an ability still evolving. He speculates that the future of the species might be achieving different levels of consciousness and mental power.

Loftus sympathizes with the quandary Broughton finds himself in trying to prove parapsychology is real. Social science is always less precise than the hard sciences and studies of weak paranormal effects more imprecise still.

"You have to be really careful in doing that kind of research," he said. "Just because something can't be explained by chance doesn't mean it is due to ESP. The best people to evaluate these claims are magicians. I have yet to see convincing evidence - but to find convincing evidence would be really difficult."