Megatrends For The '90S

What do John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene foresee for the 1990s?

In ``Megatrends 2000'' the two authors discern 10 major trends they say will affect the most important elements of our lives. They call these trends ``the gateways to the 21st century,'' and depict them partly as follows:

-- An arts renaissance: As mankind emerges from the Dark Ages of industrialism, we become freer to ponder spiritually and explore what it means to be human. So the 1990s will be a boom time, particularly for museums, which in Britain, for example, are opening at the rate of one every 18 days.

The boom also will encompass all the visual arts, poetry, dance, theater and music. In the United States, business will fund the shift of patronage from sports to the arts. Today's consumer is sophisticated enough to appreciate the arts and can pay the price of admission. Consequently, job opportunities in the artistic fields are expanding dramatically. Paradoxically, staying home with a good book is also re-emerging as one of America's favorite forms of

entertainment.

-- Emergence of free-market socialism: The desire for economic cooperation now is stronger than the urge for military adventure. The Soviet Union is likely to abandon about half of its centralized control and lease many farms and factories to individuals. Eastern Europe in general is heading toward a multiparty political system, free-market economics and eventual integration with Western Europe and the Common Market. Yummies - young, upwardly mobile Marxists - are emerging in the USSR and Eastern Europe, imitating the clothes and music tastes of Western yuppies.

-- Cultural nationalism: In the face of growing homogenization, people will fight harder to preserve their respective racial, religious, cultural and national heritages. The Welsh, French-Canadians and Catalans of Spain are the bellwethers. In 1992, an economically integrated Europe will be accompanied by an outbreak of cultural assertiveness for the rest of the 1990s. Although soon the whole educated world may have English as a first or second language (part of its appeal is that it's easy to speak badly), that universality will also draw a backlash.

-- Privatization of the welfare state: Between 1980 and 1988 more than 40 percent of Britain's nationalized sector was sold to private enterprise, and for this reason it must be considered the primary model in the global shift away from welfare states. In the United States, perhaps the best example of the push for privatization is the nationwide movement toward getting people off welfare and into private-sector jobs. To date, some 39 states have enacted workfare programs, and Congress has mandated that all states must institute such programs.

-- Rise of the Pacific Rim: The 1990s will see Tokyo as the world's fashion, design and art leader. Washington state is beginning to exploit the commercial opportunities of its Pacific Rim location. And although Japan is the economic leader of the Asian Pacific Rim region, eventually Asian trade will be dominated by China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

-- Women's decade of leadership: In sheer numbers, women dominate the information society, because 84 percent of working women are part of the information/service sector. Women and the information society - which celebrates brain over brawn - are a partnership made in heaven. In the first decades of the next century, we and our children will look back at the latter half of the 20th century and remark on how quaint were the days when women were excluded from the top echelons of business and political leadership, much as we today recall when women could not vote.

-- Age of biology: The Age of Information also will be the Age of Biology. The first thrust of biotechnology came in health care, when scientists altered mice and goats to produce proteins and chemicals useful for humans - a drug to aid hemophiliacs and another to dissolve blood clots. We will soon be able to identify specific-disease-prone persons, and a new generation of vaccines is on its way. Biotechnology also may end hunger through a new revolution, and eventually will make it possible to manipulate inherited characteristics. And that's the scary part. While biotechnology suggests awesome contributions to the improvement of life, it also raises questions that make people very uneasy.

-- Religious revival: Religious belief is intensifying worldwide, confounding forecasts 25 years ago that religion would wither away because of modernity. Spiritual belief intensifies in people buffeted by change. Most of the growth is among fundamentalist and alternative religions rather than in mainstream churches.

-- Triumph of the individual: The dominant principle of business has changed from authoritarian military-style management to democratic leadership that encourages self-management. That's because it's almost impossible to supervise information work. Information, service, finance, computer, biotechnology and health-care jobs are not performed on an assembly line and cannot be managed as though they were. The most exciting breakthroughs of the 21st century will occur not because of technology, but because of an expanding concept of what it means to be human.

Shall we see the Naisbitt-Aburdene ``gateway to the 21st century'' prognostications fulfilled?

Could be, says UW assistant business professor John Butler, because `seat-of-the pants forecasters like Naisbitt sometimes get better results than academic forecasters.''

``I'm very skeptical,'' says Charles Hill, another UW assistant professor of business. ``All we can know with certainty is that tomorrow is going to be different from today.''

Or, to put it another way, the only safe bet is that the future lies ahead.