Criton Buyout By Esterline Seen As A Long-Term Advantage

Here is a summary of recent brokerage-house and investment-advisory opinions affecting Pacific Northwest stocks. The Seattle Times neither recommends nor advises against purchase of these stocks. Price quotations reflect trading when the reports were written.

The purchase of Criton Technologies probably won't boost the profits of buyer Esterline Corp. ($11), and the current fiscal year ending Oct. 31 will be a tough one for Esterline, says the Value Line Investment Survey. ``Our enthusiasm for this stock for the next 12 months is limited,'' the financial newsletter said. ``Near-term earnings prospects are neither bright nor certain,'' and profits will remain relatively hard to predict, wrote analyst Lucien Virgile.

However, the $121 million purchase late last year forms ``the basis for a bigger and better future'' for Esterline, Value Line said. ``Appreciation potential to 1992-94 is very large. We think Esterline's management is stronger than in earlier years,'' and with more businesses and fewer shares, per-share profits ``are likely to hit a record high in three to five years.''

The Criton purchase added commercial aerospace and defense companies to Esterline's basic business of making equipment for the electronics, aerospace and machine-tool industries.

Piper Jaffray & Hopwood, noting that Esterline stock ``is beginning to reverse . . . a long decline in its stock price the past three years,'' called the issue ``a good bottom-fishing candidate'' at around $10.

The Pershing Division of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities continues its ``buy'' recommendation on McCaw Cellular Communications ($36.375). The Kirkland company now has ``the green light to pursue its goal of establishing a nationwide cellular network,'' said Pershing.

McCaw ``should continue to benefit from its extensive presence in key geographical markets'' such as San Antonio, Seattle and Miami and from faster growth everywhere because of lower prices for cellular phones, wrote analyst Cecilia Mast. ``We continue to urge accumulation'' of McCaw stock, she said.

Nike ($53.75) is positioned to continue its long-term growth, but that growth will be cyclical rather than smooth, said Ragen MacKenzie Inc. The fashion appeal that drives demand for much of the company's sales ``is subject to severe volatility, leaving (Nike) highly susceptible to short-term fluctuations'' in sales and profits, wrote analyst John Rogers.

Despite the stock's recent 30 percent slide, Rogers rates it a ``hold.'' He said investors should be ready to step in and buy if the price goes under $50.

Value Line says Airborne Freight Corp. ($35) should do better than average in the coming 12 months, with traffic 40 percent ahead of a year ago and the withdrawal of Emery from the small-package-forwarding market. However, although per-share earnings could rise to $2.75 this year (up from an estimated $2.20 in 1989), the stock's ``rich'' price/earnings multiple of 14.2 ``suggests only average appreciation potential to 1992-94,'' Value Line said.

The same newsletter said Alaska Air Group ($21) is experiencing soaring traffic volumes but declining yields because of competitive price discounting. Though profits ``probably will hold up better than those of most carriers in the year ahead,'' the stock is likely to do worse than average in 1990 and only track the market in the next three to five years, wrote analyst Paul Graham Jr.

Profits at Boeing ($58.875) should peak in 1992 or 1993, says Shearson Lehman Hutton, which believes fears of high development costs for the proposed $100 million model 777 airliner are ``overblown.'' Although Boeing profits should recover in the first quarter of 1990, ``the real test of the learning-curve experience will probably not be felt until the second quarter,'' wrote analyst Gary Reich.

Stock Talk appears weekly in the Business Monday section of The Seattle Times.